April 5, 2003 12:08 PM

Stephen Roach talks of a global recession, a "world in shock."

Nor should this dip be viewed as just a two-month statistical fluke that will end the moment that Baghdad falls. Our baseline forecast currently points to a world economy that is likely to record “zero” to slightly negative real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2003. For the current period, we are projecting outright contractions in Europe and Japan that could more than offset fractional growth in the US and elsewhere in the world. Moreover, with SARS-related disruptions hitting Asia exceedingly hard at the moment, the risks to our second-quarter estimate are decidedly on the downside.

Next Entry: Protest Posters (04.05.2003)
Previous Entry: Anxiety, Hubris, and a Half Dozen Columnists (04.04.2003)