From Jim Gilliam's blog archives
Kerry's on fire in Iowa

January 16, 2004 7:33 AM

What's going on with those Iowans?! Kerry's up 9 points in one week. Dean's down 6 and Gephardt's down 4.

It's probably because Clark isn't running there, so the "anti-Dean" vote isn't split between the Kerry and Clark. If Kerry does pull off a huge win (which still seems unlikely, he can't have put together much of an organization in the last few weeks since he started focusing on Iowa), he'll have to raise A LOT of money really fast, or he'll get toasted by the Dean machine in the next round of primaries.

Three days to go...

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Kerry's on fire in Iowa (01.16.2004)

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Read the 7 comments.

dhermesc:

You forgot to mention the huge gains made by Edwards. Given the +,- 4% error factor Iowa is now a statistical 4 way dead heat. With the actual voting so close at hand the pollsters have to be a bit more precise, or they end up looking like fools - again.

Fri Jan 16 2004 8:33 AM


Jim Gilliam:

Yes, Edwards has edged up 3 points over the last week. And, according to the poll, every major candidate that is actually participating in the caucus has a shot at winning it. Monday sure is gonna be interesting.

As an aside, Edwards would be my number 2 pick, after Dean.

Fri Jan 16 2004 9:24 AM


stonedown:

If you haven't been over to Needlenose lately, you are missing out on an excellent series by fubar.

Fri Jan 16 2004 12:22 PM


stonedown:

I wouldn't be upset by either a Dean/Edwards ticket or an Edwards/Dean ticket. Any ticket which doesn't have Dean on it would be a bitter disappointment.

Fri Jan 16 2004 12:26 PM


dhermesc:

I don't see Edwards wanting anything to do with Dean. After listening to the massive support system Dean has in place (sounds like every person voting for him has a free ride to the polls and a baysitter to watch the kids or grand parents while they do it) it will be a massive blow if he takes anything less then first. Makes Gephardt's union men look like a they are out of their league.

Well, the polls have been open in Iowa for 15 minutes and still media has yet to predict the winner, wonder whats holding them up?

Mon Jan 19 2004 6:16 AM


Jim GIlliam:

There are no polling places, since it's a caucus, not a regular primary. It doesn't start until 4:30 PT, 6:30 (Iowa time). CSPAN will be broadcasting 2 of the roughly 2000 caucuses. Here's an AP article that explains the caucus system.

Mon Jan 19 2004 7:14 AM


dhermesc:

Thanks for the link. My mistake for confusing primary and caucus - had a CRS moment.

Mon Jan 19 2004 11:25 AM


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